LAGOS
2058
Michael Khalil is stepping down. For twenty-six years he built the Fifth Republic, raised GDP per capita from poverty to twenty-six thousand dollars, and never once faced a competitive election. Now he is leaving. Nigeria's first democratic election in a generation begins.
Nigeria · 2058
THE COUNTRY
HE BUILT
Nigeria in 2058 is wildly wealthier than it was in 2028. It is also a country with a twenty-year-old question about who that wealth belongs to, an insurgency that has never formally ended, a northern population that watched the state systematically marginalize their institutions, and a southern urban class that cannot afford housing in the cities it built.
The Pada, Nigeria's Western-educated diaspora class, rule by appointment, not consent. The Naijin, Sino-Nigerian families, control the financial architecture. The north wants Sharia back on formal terms. The south is tired of subsidizing a region it believes never bought into the project.
The first democratic election in thirty years begins now.
The Engine
174,960
VOTER TYPES
LAGOS uses a spatial voting model. Every party has a position on twenty-eight issue dimensions. Every voter has an ideal position on the same dimensions. Closeness determines preference — but closeness is not the only thing that matters. Religion matters. Ethnicity matters. Salience matters.
The engine models 174,960 distinct voter types, separated by ethnicity, religion, setting, age cohort, education, gender, livelihood, and income bracket. Every election runs through a thousand Monte Carlo iterations, producing a distribution of outcomes rather than a single fixed result.
Your campaign actions shift salience, awareness, and valence. Your manifesto fixes your positions. The engine does the rest.
The Campaign
EIGHT TURNS.
ONE SHOT.
The campaign runs for eight turns, one week each. You spend Political Capital on actions — rallies, advertising, ground game operations, media appearances, patronage, EPO engagement. Each action is scored on strategic fit and quality. A better-reasoned action has more impact than a poor one.
Actions carry risk. Ethnic mobilization and patronage accumulate exposure. Enough exposure and a scandal hits, costing valence, Political Capital, and party cohesion. A fractured party gets a fraction of the impact. A party at full cohesion operates at maximum effectiveness.
Anyone can participate. Players who put in more effort will see it rewarded.
The Man Who Built It
For twenty-six years, Michael Khalil held Nigeria together by force of personality. Now he is gone. Every question he deferred is open. The country goes to the polls.